Days Traders already Missing Trumps tweets in 2021

According to a Day trader at 500percentGain …tweets like the one pictured above can cause Volatility in the market and  that's a Trader Best thing ever, because when the Market is Volatile traders can capitalize on the ups and downs of the market very easy. 

Days when Trump tweets a lot are associated with negative stock market returns, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said Tuesday in a report.

The brokerage’s chief equity strategist, Savita Subramanian, wrote in a note that “since 2016, days with more than 35 tweets (90 percentile) by Trump have seen negative returns (-9bp), whereas days with less than 5 tweets (10 percentile) have seen positive returns (+5bp) — statistically significant.” A basis point is 0.01 percent.

In other words, when Trump tweets more than usual, the stock market tends to fall slightly, on average.

“Trade talk, political campaigning and tweets have contributed to volatility, from China to Fed policy to tax policy,” she wrote. “And new tariffs announced in August indicate downside risk to our 2019/20 EPS growth forecasts of +2%/+7%, where indirect impacts from hits to corporate or consumer confidence could be significant.”

To be sure, while an active Trump on Twitter can disrupt markets with sudden pronouncements on China trade or the Federal Reserve, he has still been good for the stock market overall. The Dow is up 42% since the 2016 presidential election and 31% since his inauguration.

It’s down 1.6% since May 5, however, when the president shocked financial markets by announcing on Twitter that he would increase tariffs of 10% on $200 billion to 25%, dashing hopes that the world’s two largest economies were nearing a trade resolution.